market analysis

Bitcoin

2026-10-04 06:43:50

Trader Killa says post-midterm de-risking may offer a better point to consider BTC hedges

Well-known trader Killa said he does not expect Bitcoin to set a fresh low and is still holding a long position. In his view, the more relevant risk window may come after the U.S. midterm elections, when parts of the market could shift into de-risking mode. That is why he does not see this as the right time to open hedge shorts in advance. Killa also pointed to a historical pattern: in every U.S. midterm election cycle, Bitcoin’s performance after the election has been relatively weak. Even so, he argued that traders should not short solely on the basis of that cycle history. If Bitcoin continues to rise before the vote, he said, traders can wait until the election draws closer and then decide whether to act based on price action at that time. For now, his preferred approach is to keep long exposure, watch how the market reacts around the midterm election, and only then reassess whether hedge shorts make sense.

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Ethereum

2026-10-04 04:01:42

ETH Trades Near $2,694 as Binance Perpetual Sell Depth Stands Out

Ethereum was quoted at about $2,694.05, according to order book monitoring platform Liquid24/7.xyz. The data showed Binance perpetuals carrying the heaviest nearby sell-side depth among the venues listed, with roughly $93.3586 million in sell orders versus about $59.6945 million in buy orders, leaving sell liquidity ahead by around $33.6641 million. On Binance spot, sell orders were also larger than bids by about $1.8001 million. Elsewhere, the picture was more balanced or tilted the other way. Coinbase spot showed about $9.677 million in buy orders against roughly $9.0918 million in sell orders, a buy-side lead of around $585,100. OKX perpetuals posted about $23.2709 million in buy orders and $20.2652 million in sell orders, while Hyperliquid perpetuals showed about $13.2093 million in buy orders and $10.839 million in sell orders. Liquid24/7.xyz said Binance perpetual sell depth was clearly thicker than at other venues. The platform added that if a large market order hits, slippage could be larger on the thinner side of the market at other exchanges.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-04 06:42:43

Darkfost says Bitcoin volatility around the power-law trendline has narrowed over the past decade

Crypto analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin’s price swings around its "Power Law" trendline have been shrinking over the past 10 years, pointing to tighter market-cycle behavior. According to the figures he shared, the oscillator’s peak fell from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, while the standard deviation of its daily change dropped from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of about 49%. Darkfost added that the oscillator was at +34.5 at the time of the post, with Bitcoin priced at about $84,700. Based on the model parameters for that day, an oscillator reading of +100 would correspond to a Bitcoin price of roughly $157,800, or about 86% above the current level. He also said $157,800 should not be treated as a fixed target. Instead, he described it as a reference level derived from the current regression parameters. If the power-law trendline keeps rising, that reference price would move higher as well.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-04 06:50:46

Trader Killa says Bitcoin is unlikely to make a new low and keeps long exposure

Trader Killa said he does not expect Bitcoin to set another lower low and is still holding a long position. At the same time, he warned that some de-risking could still emerge after the U.S. midterm elections, which in his view makes this an unsuitable moment to open hedge shorts in advance. Killa pointed to past U.S. midterm election cycles, saying Bitcoin has historically shown weaker performance after the vote. Even so, he argued that traders should not short purely on the basis of that pattern. If Bitcoin continues to rise before the election, he said market participants can wait until the event draws closer and then decide whether to act based on price action at that time. For now, his preferred approach is to keep long exposure, watch how the market reacts around the election window, and only then consider whether hedge shorts are needed.

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Cronos

2026-10-04 03:21:35

Cronos passes two tokenomics proposals, burns 228 million CRO

Cronos Network said on Oct. 4 that two tokenomics proposals have passed, with 228 million CRO from the community pool already burned. The move brings the token’s cumulative burn total to 428 million CRO. Under the approved proposals, all future revenue generated by Ult and Cronos Launch will be used to buy back CRO from the open market, followed by monthly burns. Cronos also said all related transaction hashes will be disclosed publicly. The update lays out both the completed burn and the mechanism for future buybacks and burns tied to revenue from the two products.

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pump.fun

2026-10-04 02:50:02

Ansem says market has yet to price in pump.fun’s shift toward L1-like infrastructure

Crypto trader Ansem said in a post on X that the market has not fully priced in pump.fun’s potential to evolve into infrastructure resembling a Layer 1 base layer, with other token launch platforms potentially building directly on top of it in the future. He argued that one underappreciated part of the model is the creator fee share paid to token creators, which he said is roughly matched 1:1 with platform revenue. In his example, if the platform generates about $500 million in revenue, token creators could receive about $500 million in creator fee sharing after tokens complete the bonding curve stage. Ansem said that structure gives teams a strong incentive to keep building products on pump.fun. He added that this setup may be better than a traditional L1 because pump.fun can collect fees not only from launch platforms built across its stack, but also from every token issued through those platforms. As features such as custom trading pairs and Callout Rewards roll out, he said the market may begin valuing PUMP using logic closer to that applied to L1 networks. He also said he is highly bullish on the thesis that pump.fun could become a “super app” in the current market cycle.

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Bank of Ameri

2026-10-04 02:31:40

BofA warns current AI-driven market concentration resembles the run-up to the 2000 tech bubble peak

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said in the latest edition of "Flow Show" that the current structure of the U.S. equity market looks strikingly similar to the period just before the 2000 dot-com bubble peak. He pointed to a market split in which AI-related trades and mega-cap technology stocks continue to lead while much of the rest of the market remains under pressure. Hartnett said investors are long AI assets represented by the Nasdaq 100 and the Magnificent Seven, while shorting areas with lower AI exposure such as the S&P 500 equal-weight index, adding that the "1999 analogy still holds." He also described AI as the "biggest bubble since railroads," while noting key differences between the two eras, including rising semiconductor prices today and the lack of support from falling Treasury yields. Hartnett said the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.33%, the highest since 2002, and proposed a "buy humiliation" trade in bonds. He also flagged four market warning levels tied to IXG, MOVE, MDY and IJR, while BofA’s bull-and-bear indicator slipped from 9.3 to 8.8 but remained in "sell" territory.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-04 02:13:54

Murphy says rising BTC chip concentration points to bigger volatility in the next one to two months

Analyst Murphy said Bitcoin has posted consecutive daily doji candles, with rare upper and lower wick swings showing up on the chart. He pointed to data showing that on Aug. 1, two chip distribution bars formed in the $62,000-$63,000 range, totaling about 1.68 million BTC, with chip concentration at 12.9%. On Oct. 3, another two prominent bars appeared in the $83,000-$84,000 range, totaling about 1.52 million BTC, while concentration had risen to 12%. Murphy said the upper warning zone is now close. He also noted that after a similar data combination appeared on Aug. 1, BTC moved from $60,000 to $80,000 in just 17 days. In his view, heavier chip accumulation and rising concentration do not point to a confirmed direction on their own, but they do suggest that the probability of amplified volatility is increasing. He expects the market could see a major move within as little as one month, or as long as two months.

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